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Ignoring failures might cost you your life

Avro Lancaster Bomber Planes
RAF Avro Lancaster Bombers used in WW2
Photographer - Richard R Schunemann


It was the Second World War, and British Royal Air Force (RAF), raided Germany and bombed their cities. German defences were strong. German fighter planes and anti-aircraft gunners shot down British bomber planes. The Royal Air Force wanted to save their planes and pilots. Adding armour plates to the planes can protect. But too much armour adds to the weight and affects the range, speed and air time of fighter planes.


RAF analysed fighter planes that returned from their missions for bullet holes. They found that wings, nose and couple other areas took the most hit. But cockpit, engine and tails were less damaged. They decided to fix armour plates to protect damaged areas of the plane. But Abraham Wald, a Hungary Mathematician suggested the opposite. His suggestion shocked everyone. But Wald reasoned, RAF was analysing planes that survived the mission. Yes, these planes took hits. But they were still able to make it. The RAF was looking at the survivors. Planes that couldn't make it back must have taken a hit in areas that proved fatal. And those areas would be the undamaged areas of planes that survived. RAF took Wald's suggestion and it worked. Many more fighter planes that would have perished otherwise were able to return.

 

RAF focused on fighter planes that survived the mission because they were available. Alas, the planes that lost in enemy territory were not available for analysis. And they were about to decide on placing the armour plates based on the planes that survived. This would not have saved the planes. But Abraham Wald's counter-intuitive thinking saved RAF. This is a good example of survivorship bias. We focus on the stories of successful people. Their stories are available to us. But for every successful person, there are thousands who failed. But their stories are not available to us. Success is only half the story. Look for failures to complete the story. Only then you can know the recipe for success.

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